Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Two opinions on the Hillary campaign

...neither of which I can take credit for, but both of which I like.

One is here. It is David Brooks, a conservative who doesn't hate liberals, in today's Times. The most alarming bits are these:

Last week, an important Clinton adviser told Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen (also of Politico) that Clinton had no more than a 10 percent chance of getting the nomination. Now, she’s probably down to a 5 percent chance....

The Democratic Party is probably going to have to endure another three months of daily sniping....

For the sake of that 5 percent, this will be the sourest spring. About a fifth of Clinton and Obama supporters now say they wouldn’t vote for the other candidate in the general election. Meanwhile, on the other side, voters get an unobstructed view of the Republican nominee. John McCain’s approval ratings have soared 11 points. He is now viewed positively by 67 percent of Americans. A month ago, McCain was losing to Obama among independents by double digits in a general election matchup. NOW MCCAIN HAS A LEAD AMONG THIS GROUP.

For three more months, Clinton is likely to hurt Obama even more against McCain, without hurting him against herself. And all this is happening so she can preserve that 5 percent chance.

The second Hillary campaign opinion I like is here, from some lovely blogger name Dillon at Backalleymedia.org. Dillon suggests Hillary suspend her campaign for these reasons:

1) Every time she attacks Obama now she seems like a spoilsport in the eyes of a growing consensus of party leaders.

2) Her strategy now... has to be to wait for Obama to make a horrendous mistake.... If she cedes the field and lets Obama battle McCain for a few months, it’s possible that Obama will make such a mistake, proving himself unworthy to face a strong Republican opponent. If he screws up by late August, Clinton can ride to the rescue at the convention.

3) She’s got no money. Actually, that’s not quite true — she’s got a big chunk of money that she has to hold in reserve for the general election. If she suspends her campaign for now, she’ll stop losing funds.


By the way, here the Times reporting on how the Hillary campaign finance problems have her stiffing her vendors, even when she owes them as little $2,500.

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